Sunday, January 17, 2010

Interesting

Dr. Bartlett said, “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is the inability to understand the exponential function.”



All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
(Arthur Schopenhauer)



How does a hyperinflationary destruction of a currency happen?

Here’s a relatively recent example that comes from Yugoslavia between the years 1988 and 1995. Pre-1990, the Yugoslavian dinar had measurable value: You could actually buy something with one. However, throughout the 1980’s, the Yugoslavian government ran a persistent budget deficit and printed money to make up the shortfall. By the early 1990’s, the government had used up all its own hard currency reserves, and they proceeded to loot the private accounts of citizens. In order to keep things moving along, successively larger bills had to be printed, finally culminating in this stunning example – a 500 billion dinar note. At its height, inflation in Yugoslavia was running at over 37% per day. This means prices were doubling every 48 hours or so.

Let me see if I can make that more concrete for you. Suppose that on January 1, 2007, you had a penny and could find something to purchase with it. At 37% per day inflation, by April 3, 2007 you’d need one of these – a billion dollar bill – to purchase the very same item. In reverse, if you’d had a billion dollars on January 1st stuffed in a suitcase, by April 3rd you’d have had a penny’s worth of purchasing power left.

Clearly, if you’d attempted to save money during this period of time, you’d have lost it all, so we can safely state that inflationary money regimes impose a penalty on savers. The opposite side of this is that inflationary money regimes promote spending and require that money be invested or speculated, so as to at least have the chance of keeping pace with inflation. Of course, investing and speculating involve risks, so we can broaden this statement to include the claim that inflationary monetary systems require the citizens living within them to subject their hard-earned savings to risk.

That is worth pondering for a minute or two.

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