http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt
I simply LOVE how some of these countries have debt to citzens at like 500k and such...if this was not so sick it would be funny.
Look at all those countrys jocked up on credit, when the western countries money goes, so does a LOT of these smaller countries were their debt to gdp is at like 68-70% and higher, simply because you know that without the factory's of freedom(i'm trademarking that bastards!lol) churning out plastic crap for the american massives, these countries have no gdp at all. If our government did not fudge our gdp numbers, our credit rating might be as good as it is now, borrowing might be a little harder. We are on a VERY thin ledge looking over now, while it crumbles away at our feet.
Get out of all dollar and dollar donaminated assets while you can, or dont.
You can only lead the horse to water.
advice, the wise dont need it and the dumb wont heed it.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
25 Questions To Ask Anyone Who Is Delusional Enough To Believe That This Economic Recovery Is Real
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/05.10/25questions.html
Michael Snyder
If you listen to the mainstream media long enough, you just might be tempted to believe that the United States has emerged from the recession and is now in the middle of a full-fledged economic recovery. In fact, according to Obama administration officials, the great American economic machine has roared back to life, stronger and more vibrant than ever before. But is that really the case? Of course not. You would have to be delusional to believe that. What did happen was that all of the stimulus packages and government spending and new debt that Obama and the U.S. Congress pumped into the economy bought us a little bit of time. But they have also made our long-term economic problems far worse. The reality is that the U.S. cannot keep supporting an economy on an ocean of red ink forever. At some point the charade is going to come crashing down.
And GDP is not a really good measure of the economic health of a nation. For example, if you would have looked at the growth of GDP in the Weimar republic in the early 1930s, you may have been tempted to think that the German economy was really thriving. German citizens were spending increasingly massive amounts of money. But of course that money was becoming increasingly worthless at the same time as hyperinflation spiralled out of control.
Well, today the purchasing power of our dollar is rapidly eroding as the price of food and other necessities continues to increase. So just because Americans are spending a little bit more money than before really doesn’t mean much of anything. As you will see below, there are a whole bunch of other signs that the U.S. economy is in very, very serious trouble.
Any "recovery" that the U.S. economy is experiencing is illusory and will be quite temporary. The entire financial system of the United States is falling apart, and the powers that be can try to patch it up and prop it up for a while, but in the end this thing is going to come crashing down.
But as obvious as that may seem to most of us, there are still quite a few people out there that are absolutely convinced that the U.S. economy will fully recover and will soon be stronger than ever.
So the following are 25 questions to ask anyone who is delusional enough to believe that this economic recovery is real….
#1) In what universe is an economy with 39.68 million Americans on food stamps considered to be a healthy, recovering economy? In fact, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that enrollment in the food stamp program will exceed 43 million Americans in 2011. Is a rapidly increasing number of Americans on food stamps a good sign or a bad sign for the economy?
#2) According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings were reported on 367,056 properties in the month of March. This was an increase of almost 19 percent from February, and it was the highest monthly total since RealtyTrac began issuing its report back in January 2005. So can you please explain again how the U.S. real estate market is getting better?
#3) The Mortgage Bankers Association just announced that more than 10 percent of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage had missed at least one payment in the January-March period. That was a record high and up from 9.1 percent a year ago. Do you think that is an indication that the U.S. housing market is recovering?
#4) How can the U.S. real estate market be considered healthy when, for the first time in modern history, banks own a greater share of residential housing net worth in the United States than all individual Americans put together?
#5) With the U.S. Congress planning to quadruple oil taxes, what do you think that is going to do to the price of gasoline in the United States and how do you think that will affect the U.S. economy?
#6) Do you think that it is a good sign that Arnold Schwarzenegger, the governor of the state of California, says that "terrible cuts" are urgently needed in order to avoid a complete financial disaster in his state?
#7) But it just isn’t California that is in trouble. Dozens of U.S. states are in such bad financial shape that they are getting ready for their biggest budget cuts in decades. What do you think all of those budget cuts will do to the economy?
#8) In March, the U.S. trade deficit widened to its highest level since December 2008. Month after month after month we buy much more from the rest of the world than they buy from us. Wealth is draining out of the United States at an unprecedented rate. So is the fact that the gigantic U.S. trade deficit is actually getting bigger a good sign or a bad sign for the U.S. economy?
#9) Considering the fact that the U.S. government is projected to have a 1.6 trillion dollar deficit in 2010, and considering the fact that if you went out and spent one dollar every single second it would take you more than 31,000 years to spend a trillion dollars, how can anyone in their right mind claim that the U.S. economy is getting healthier when we are getting into so much debt?
#10) The U.S. Treasury Department recently announced that the U.S. government suffered a wider-than-expected budget deficit of 82.69 billion dollars in April. So is the fact that the red ink of the U.S. government is actually worse than projected a good sign or a bad sign?
#11) According to one new report, the U.S. national debt will reach 100 percent of GDP by the year 2015. So is that a sign of economic recovery or of economic disaster?
#12) Monstrous amounts of oil continue to gush freely into the Gulf of Mexico, and analysts are already projecting that the seafood and tourism industries along the Gulf coast will be devastated for decades by this unprecedented environmental disaster. In light of those facts, how in the world can anyone project that the U.S. economy will soon be stronger than ever?
#13) The FDIC’s list of problem banks recently hit a 17-year high. Do you think that an increasing number of small banks failing is a good sign or a bad sign for the U.S. economy?
#14) The FDIC is backing 8,000 banks that have a total of $13 trillion in assets with a deposit insurance fund that is basically flat broke. So what do you think will happen if a significant number of small banks do start failing?
#15) Existing home sales in the United States jumped 7.6 percent in April. That is the good news. The bad news is that this increase only happened because the deadline to take advantage of the temporary home buyer tax credit (government bribe) was looming. So now that there is no more tax credit for home buyers, what will that do to home sales?
#16) Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently told the U.S. government that they are going to need even more bailout money. So what does it say about the U.S. economy when the two "pillars" of the U.S. mortgage industry are government-backed financial black holes that the U.S. government has to relentlessly pour money into?
#17) 43 percent of Americans have less than $10,000 saved for retirement. Tens of millions of Americans find themselves just one lawsuit, one really bad traffic accident or one very serious illness away from financial ruin. With so many Americans living on the edge, how can you say that the economy is healthy?
#18) The mayor of Detroit says that the real unemployment rate in his city is somewhere around 50 percent. So can the U.S. really be experiencing an economic recovery when so many are still unemployed in one of America’s biggest cities?
#19) Gallup’s measure of underemployment hit 20.0% on March 15th. That was up from 19.7% two weeks earlier and 19.5% at the start of the year. Do you think that is a good trend or a bad trend?
#20) One new poll shows that 76 percent of Americans believe that the U.S. economy is still in a recession. So are the vast majority of Americans just stupid or could we still actually be in a recession?
#21) The bottom 40 percent of those living in the United States now collectively own less than 1 percent of the nation’s wealth. So is Barack Obama’s mantra that "what is good for Wall Street is good for Main Street" actually true?
#22) Richard Russell, the famous author of the Dow Theory Letters, says that Americans should sell anything they can sell in order to get liquid because of the economic trouble that is coming. Do you think that Richard Russell is delusional or could he possibly have a point?
#23) Defaults on apartment building mortgages held by U.S. banks climbed to a record 4.6 percent in the first quarter of 2010. In fact, that was almost twice the level of a year earlier. Does that look like a good trend to you?
#24) In March, the price of fresh and dried vegetables in the United States soared 49.3% - the most in 16 years. Is it a sign of a healthy economy when food prices are increasing so dramatically?
#25) 1.41 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009 – a 32 percent increase over 2008. Not only that, more Americans filed for bankruptcy in March 2010 than during any month since U.S. bankruptcy law was tightened in October 2005. So shouldn’t we at least wait until the number of Americans filing for bankruptcy is not setting new all-time records before we even dare whisper the words "economic recovery"?
Michael Snyder
If you listen to the mainstream media long enough, you just might be tempted to believe that the United States has emerged from the recession and is now in the middle of a full-fledged economic recovery. In fact, according to Obama administration officials, the great American economic machine has roared back to life, stronger and more vibrant than ever before. But is that really the case? Of course not. You would have to be delusional to believe that. What did happen was that all of the stimulus packages and government spending and new debt that Obama and the U.S. Congress pumped into the economy bought us a little bit of time. But they have also made our long-term economic problems far worse. The reality is that the U.S. cannot keep supporting an economy on an ocean of red ink forever. At some point the charade is going to come crashing down.
And GDP is not a really good measure of the economic health of a nation. For example, if you would have looked at the growth of GDP in the Weimar republic in the early 1930s, you may have been tempted to think that the German economy was really thriving. German citizens were spending increasingly massive amounts of money. But of course that money was becoming increasingly worthless at the same time as hyperinflation spiralled out of control.
Well, today the purchasing power of our dollar is rapidly eroding as the price of food and other necessities continues to increase. So just because Americans are spending a little bit more money than before really doesn’t mean much of anything. As you will see below, there are a whole bunch of other signs that the U.S. economy is in very, very serious trouble.
Any "recovery" that the U.S. economy is experiencing is illusory and will be quite temporary. The entire financial system of the United States is falling apart, and the powers that be can try to patch it up and prop it up for a while, but in the end this thing is going to come crashing down.
But as obvious as that may seem to most of us, there are still quite a few people out there that are absolutely convinced that the U.S. economy will fully recover and will soon be stronger than ever.
So the following are 25 questions to ask anyone who is delusional enough to believe that this economic recovery is real….
#1) In what universe is an economy with 39.68 million Americans on food stamps considered to be a healthy, recovering economy? In fact, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that enrollment in the food stamp program will exceed 43 million Americans in 2011. Is a rapidly increasing number of Americans on food stamps a good sign or a bad sign for the economy?
#2) According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings were reported on 367,056 properties in the month of March. This was an increase of almost 19 percent from February, and it was the highest monthly total since RealtyTrac began issuing its report back in January 2005. So can you please explain again how the U.S. real estate market is getting better?
#3) The Mortgage Bankers Association just announced that more than 10 percent of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage had missed at least one payment in the January-March period. That was a record high and up from 9.1 percent a year ago. Do you think that is an indication that the U.S. housing market is recovering?
#4) How can the U.S. real estate market be considered healthy when, for the first time in modern history, banks own a greater share of residential housing net worth in the United States than all individual Americans put together?
#5) With the U.S. Congress planning to quadruple oil taxes, what do you think that is going to do to the price of gasoline in the United States and how do you think that will affect the U.S. economy?
#6) Do you think that it is a good sign that Arnold Schwarzenegger, the governor of the state of California, says that "terrible cuts" are urgently needed in order to avoid a complete financial disaster in his state?
#7) But it just isn’t California that is in trouble. Dozens of U.S. states are in such bad financial shape that they are getting ready for their biggest budget cuts in decades. What do you think all of those budget cuts will do to the economy?
#8) In March, the U.S. trade deficit widened to its highest level since December 2008. Month after month after month we buy much more from the rest of the world than they buy from us. Wealth is draining out of the United States at an unprecedented rate. So is the fact that the gigantic U.S. trade deficit is actually getting bigger a good sign or a bad sign for the U.S. economy?
#9) Considering the fact that the U.S. government is projected to have a 1.6 trillion dollar deficit in 2010, and considering the fact that if you went out and spent one dollar every single second it would take you more than 31,000 years to spend a trillion dollars, how can anyone in their right mind claim that the U.S. economy is getting healthier when we are getting into so much debt?
#10) The U.S. Treasury Department recently announced that the U.S. government suffered a wider-than-expected budget deficit of 82.69 billion dollars in April. So is the fact that the red ink of the U.S. government is actually worse than projected a good sign or a bad sign?
#11) According to one new report, the U.S. national debt will reach 100 percent of GDP by the year 2015. So is that a sign of economic recovery or of economic disaster?
#12) Monstrous amounts of oil continue to gush freely into the Gulf of Mexico, and analysts are already projecting that the seafood and tourism industries along the Gulf coast will be devastated for decades by this unprecedented environmental disaster. In light of those facts, how in the world can anyone project that the U.S. economy will soon be stronger than ever?
#13) The FDIC’s list of problem banks recently hit a 17-year high. Do you think that an increasing number of small banks failing is a good sign or a bad sign for the U.S. economy?
#14) The FDIC is backing 8,000 banks that have a total of $13 trillion in assets with a deposit insurance fund that is basically flat broke. So what do you think will happen if a significant number of small banks do start failing?
#15) Existing home sales in the United States jumped 7.6 percent in April. That is the good news. The bad news is that this increase only happened because the deadline to take advantage of the temporary home buyer tax credit (government bribe) was looming. So now that there is no more tax credit for home buyers, what will that do to home sales?
#16) Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently told the U.S. government that they are going to need even more bailout money. So what does it say about the U.S. economy when the two "pillars" of the U.S. mortgage industry are government-backed financial black holes that the U.S. government has to relentlessly pour money into?
#17) 43 percent of Americans have less than $10,000 saved for retirement. Tens of millions of Americans find themselves just one lawsuit, one really bad traffic accident or one very serious illness away from financial ruin. With so many Americans living on the edge, how can you say that the economy is healthy?
#18) The mayor of Detroit says that the real unemployment rate in his city is somewhere around 50 percent. So can the U.S. really be experiencing an economic recovery when so many are still unemployed in one of America’s biggest cities?
#19) Gallup’s measure of underemployment hit 20.0% on March 15th. That was up from 19.7% two weeks earlier and 19.5% at the start of the year. Do you think that is a good trend or a bad trend?
#20) One new poll shows that 76 percent of Americans believe that the U.S. economy is still in a recession. So are the vast majority of Americans just stupid or could we still actually be in a recession?
#21) The bottom 40 percent of those living in the United States now collectively own less than 1 percent of the nation’s wealth. So is Barack Obama’s mantra that "what is good for Wall Street is good for Main Street" actually true?
#22) Richard Russell, the famous author of the Dow Theory Letters, says that Americans should sell anything they can sell in order to get liquid because of the economic trouble that is coming. Do you think that Richard Russell is delusional or could he possibly have a point?
#23) Defaults on apartment building mortgages held by U.S. banks climbed to a record 4.6 percent in the first quarter of 2010. In fact, that was almost twice the level of a year earlier. Does that look like a good trend to you?
#24) In March, the price of fresh and dried vegetables in the United States soared 49.3% - the most in 16 years. Is it a sign of a healthy economy when food prices are increasing so dramatically?
#25) 1.41 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009 – a 32 percent increase over 2008. Not only that, more Americans filed for bankruptcy in March 2010 than during any month since U.S. bankruptcy law was tightened in October 2005. So shouldn’t we at least wait until the number of Americans filing for bankruptcy is not setting new all-time records before we even dare whisper the words "economic recovery"?
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Cash-strapped Illinois cobbling together emergency budget
http://interact.stltoday.com/blogzone/political-fix/political-fix/2010/05/cash-strapped-illinois-cobbling-together-emergency-budget/
SPRINGFIELD, Ill. — The Illinois House tonight passed emergency budget legislation, which would essentially give Gov. Pat Quinn the authority to decide where to spend the state’s limited money in the coming months.
In a separate measure, the House also passed a “tax amnesty” measure that will allow people who are behind in their state income tax to get caught up without paying any penalty or interests, if they agrees to do it now. The measure could raise more than $200 million for the state in back-taxes, say proponents.
The emergency budget bill, SB3660, opens with this sobering statement: “The General Assembly hereby finds and declares that the state is confronted with an unprecedented fiscal crisis.”
The crisis is a $13 billion budget deficit for the coming fiscal year that has already caused payment shortfalls to schools, hospitals and businesses around the state. With an election looming in November, the Legislature has been unable to bring itself to pass the major budget cuts and/or tax hikes necessary to address it.
This bill is their answer to this rock-and-a-hard-place dilemma. Instead of passing a budget that makes decisions they’d rather not have to make right now, it drops the whole mess into Quinn’s lap — giving him what money there is, and the power to spend it as he sees fit (and, conversely, to take the heat for wherever he decides not to spend it), until the lawmakers are all safely re-elected.
The measure passed along mostly partisan lines, with the ruling Democrats putting it over the top.
“Giving open-ended power like this to a governor, making him king for a year, is ridiculous,” argued state Rep. Rosemary Mulligan, R-Des Plaines, before the vote.
The bill also includes a series of small, largely symbolic spending cuts. It imposes a dozen unpaid furlough days on top officials statewide (including legislators), nixes their scheduled cost-of-living increases next year, cuts state mileage reimbursement and requires widespread review of all existing state contracts.
The bill now moves to the Senate, which could take it up tomorrow.
The tax-amnesty bill (SB377) is expected to raise another $250 million from tax scofflaws who will be given a chance to catch up on what they owe the state, without additional penalities, as long as they pay up before Nov. 8. It now moves to the Senate.
SPRINGFIELD, Ill. — The Illinois House tonight passed emergency budget legislation, which would essentially give Gov. Pat Quinn the authority to decide where to spend the state’s limited money in the coming months.
In a separate measure, the House also passed a “tax amnesty” measure that will allow people who are behind in their state income tax to get caught up without paying any penalty or interests, if they agrees to do it now. The measure could raise more than $200 million for the state in back-taxes, say proponents.
The emergency budget bill, SB3660, opens with this sobering statement: “The General Assembly hereby finds and declares that the state is confronted with an unprecedented fiscal crisis.”
The crisis is a $13 billion budget deficit for the coming fiscal year that has already caused payment shortfalls to schools, hospitals and businesses around the state. With an election looming in November, the Legislature has been unable to bring itself to pass the major budget cuts and/or tax hikes necessary to address it.
This bill is their answer to this rock-and-a-hard-place dilemma. Instead of passing a budget that makes decisions they’d rather not have to make right now, it drops the whole mess into Quinn’s lap — giving him what money there is, and the power to spend it as he sees fit (and, conversely, to take the heat for wherever he decides not to spend it), until the lawmakers are all safely re-elected.
The measure passed along mostly partisan lines, with the ruling Democrats putting it over the top.
“Giving open-ended power like this to a governor, making him king for a year, is ridiculous,” argued state Rep. Rosemary Mulligan, R-Des Plaines, before the vote.
The bill also includes a series of small, largely symbolic spending cuts. It imposes a dozen unpaid furlough days on top officials statewide (including legislators), nixes their scheduled cost-of-living increases next year, cuts state mileage reimbursement and requires widespread review of all existing state contracts.
The bill now moves to the Senate, which could take it up tomorrow.
The tax-amnesty bill (SB377) is expected to raise another $250 million from tax scofflaws who will be given a chance to catch up on what they owe the state, without additional penalities, as long as they pay up before Nov. 8. It now moves to the Senate.
How they fool you
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay10/cognitive-dissonance05-10.html?source=patrick.net
a good look at our "recovery" and how the media twists it so you keep guessing.
there is no recovery people.
a good look at our "recovery" and how the media twists it so you keep guessing.
there is no recovery people.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Central Falls Rhode Island - Bankrupt - Goes Into Receivership
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/central-falls-rhode-island-bankrupt.html
It's the end of the line for Central Falls, Rhode Island. Central Falls had been perpetually spending more than they take in. That's about to change.
It's the end of the line for Central Falls, Rhode Island. Central Falls had been perpetually spending more than they take in. That's about to change.
hair of the dog
another great read to help explain some of the problem.
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/05/hair-of-dog.html
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/05/hair-of-dog.html
Great new video from inflation.us......melt-up!
Here's the new documentary by inflation.us
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eb1n1X0Oqdw&feature=player_embedded
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eb1n1X0Oqdw&feature=player_embedded
Experts Agree - Chaos Is Coming SOON. Trends , Forecasts and Predictions for 2010
A friend sent me this article...by email...not sure of it's source...but it is a collection with links to the various sites of those who make the predictions.
Trends, Forecasts & Predictions for 2010
(Compilation of Forecasts from Well Known Sources)
(Note: Click on blue underlined names for hot-link to related web sites)
Bob Chapman (Investment Expert)
First 6 months of 2010, Americans will continue to live in the ‘unreality’…the period between July and October is when the financial fireworks will begin. The Fed will act unilaterally for its own survival irrespective of any political implications …(source is from insider at FED meetings). In the last quarter of the year we could even see Martial law, which is more likely for the first 6 months of 2011. The FDIC will collapse in September 2010. Commercial real estate is set to implode in 2010. Wall Street believes there is a 100% chance of crash in bond market, especially municipals sometime during 2010. The dollar will be devalued by the end of 2010.
Gerald Celenteue"> (Trends Research Institute)
Terrorist attacks and the “Crash of 2010″. 40% devaluation at first = the greatest depression, worse than the Great Depression.
Igor Panarin (Russian Professor)
In the summer of 1998, based on classified data about the state of the U.S. economy and society supplied to him by fellow FAPSI analysts, Panarin forecast the probable disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010 (at the end of June – start of July 2010, as he specified on 10 December 2000).
Neithercorp (Web site)
Have projected that the third and final stage of the economic collapse will begin sometime in 2010. Barring some kind of financial miracle, or the complete dissolution of the Federal Reserve, a snowballing implosion should become visible by the end of this year. The behavior of the Fed, along with that of the IMF seems to suggest that they are preparing for a focused collapse, peaking within weeks or months instead of years, and the most certain fall of the dollar.
Webbots
July and onward things get very strange. Revolution. Dollar dead by November 2010.
LEAP 20/20 (European Economists Website)
2010 Outlook from a group of 25 European Economists with a 90% accuracy rating- We anticipate a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years. There is a perfect (economic) storm coming within the global financial markets and inevitable pressure on interest rates in the U.S. The injection of zero-cost money into the Western banking system has failed to restart the economy. Despite zero-cost money, the system has stalled. It is slowly rolling over into the next big down wave, which in Elliott Wave terminology will be Super Cycle Wave Three, or in common language, “THE BIG ONE, WHERE WE ALL GO OVER THE FALLS TOGETHER.”
Joseph Meyer (Economic Analyst)
Forecasts on the economy. He sees the real estate market continuing to decline, and advised people to invest in precious metals and commodities, as well as keeping cash at home in a safe place in case of bank closures. The stock market, after peaking in March or April (around 10,850), will fall all the way down to somewhere between 2450 and 4125 during the next leg down.
Harry Dent (Financial Newsletter Writer)
A very likely second crash by late 2010. The coming depression (starts around the summer of 2010). Dent sees the stock market–currently benefiting from upward momentum and peppier economic activity–headed for a very brief and pleasant run that could lift the Dow to the 10,700-11,500 range from its current level of about 10.090. But then, he sees the market running into a stone wall, which will be followed by a nasty stock market decline (starting in early March to late April) that could drive down the Dow later this year to 3,000-5,000 with his best guess about 3,800.
Richard Russell (Market Expert)
(from 2/3/10) says the bear market rally is in the process of breaking up and panic is on the way. He sees a full correction of the entire rise from the 2002 low of 7,286 to the bull market high of 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007. The halfway level of retracement was 10,725. The total retracement was to 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009. He now sees the Dow falling to 7,286 and if that level does not hold, “I see it sinking to its 1980-82 area low of Dow 1,000.” The current action is the worst he has ever seen. (Bob Chapman says for Russell to make such a startling statement is unusual because he never cries wolf and is almost never wrong).
Niño Becerra (Professor of Economics)
Predicted in July 2007 that what was going to happen was that by mid 2010 there is going to be a crisis only comparable to the one in 1929. From October 2009 to May 2010 people will begin to see things are not working out the way the government thought. In May of 2010, the crisis starts with all its force and continues and strengthens throughout 2011. He accurately predicted the current recession and market crash to the month.
Lyndon Larouche (Economist, Political Activist)
The crisis is accelerating and will become worse week by week until the whole system grinds into a collapse, likely sometime this year. And when it does, it will be the greatest collapse since the fall of the Roman Empire.
WALL STREET JOURNAL (Newspaper - 2/2010)
“You are witnessing a fundamental breakdown of the American dream, a systemic breakdown of our democracy and our capitalism, a breakdown driven by the blind insatiable greed of Wall Street: Dysfunctional government, insane markets, economy on the brink. Multiply that many times over and see a world in total disarray. Ignore it now, tomorrow will be too late.”
Eric deCarbonnel (Financial Analyst)
There is no precedence for the panic and chaos that will occur in 2010. The global food supply/demand picture has NEVER been so out of balance. The 2010 food crisis will rearrange economic, financial, and political order of the world, and those who aren’t prepared will suffer terrible losses…As the dollar loses most of its value, America’s savings will be wiped out. The US service economy will disintegrate as consumer spending in real terms (ie: gold or other stable currencies) drops like a rock, bringing unemployment to levels exceeding the great depression. Public health services/programs will be cut back, as individuals will have no savings/credit/income to pay for medical care. Value of most investments will be wiped out. The US debt markets will freeze again, this time permanently. There will be no buyers except at the most drastic of fire sale prices, and inflation will wipe away value before credit markets have any chance at recovery. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. Since global derivatives markets operate on the assumption of the continued stable value of the dollar and short term US debt, using derivatives to bet against the dollar is NOT a good idea. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. The dollar’s collapse will rob US consumers of all purchasing power, and any investment depend on US consumption will lose most of its value.
Alpha-Omega Report (Trends Forecasts, End Times Prophesy Analysis)
Going into 2010, the trends seemed to lead nowhere or towards oblivion. Geo-politically, the Middle East was and is trending towards some sort of military clash, most likely by mid-year, but perhaps sooner…At the moment, it seems 2010 is shaping up to be a year of absolute chaos. We see trends for war between Israel and her neighbors that will shake every facet of human activity…In the event of war, we see all other societal trends being thoroughly disrupted…Iran will most likely shut off the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf. This will have immense consequences for the world’s economy. Oil prices will skyrocket into the stratosphere and become so expensive that world’s economies will collapse. There are also trend indicators along economic lines that point to the potential for a total meltdown of the world’s financial system with major crisis points developing with the change of each quarter of the year. 2010 could be a meltdown year for the world’s economy, regardless of what goes on in the Middle East.
Robin Landry (Market Expert)
I believe we are headed to new market highs between 10780-11241 over the next few months. The most likely time frame for the top is the April-May area. Remember the evidence IMHO still says we are in a bear market rally with a major decline to follow once this rally ends.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (President, Hussman Investment Trust)
In my estimation, there is still close to an 80% probability (Bayes’ Rule) that a second market plunge and economic downturn will unfold during 2010.
Robert Prechter (Founder of Elliott Wave International – Author, Stock Market Analyst)
Implores retail investors stay away from the markets… for now. Prechter, who was bullish near the lows in March 2009, now says the stock market “is in a topping area, “predicting another crash in 2010 that will bring stocks below the 2009 low. His word to the wise, “be patient, don’t rush it” keep your money in cash and cash equivalents.
Richard Mogey (Research Director - Foundation for the Study of Cycles)
Because of a convergence of numerous cycles all at once, the stock market may go up for a little while, but will crash in 2010 and reach all-time lows late 2012. Mogey says that the 2008 crash was nothing compared to the coming crash. Gold may correct in 2009, but will go up in 2010 and peak in 2011. Silver will follow gold.
James Howard Kunstler (Author, Correspondent) (January 2010)
The economy as we’ve known it simply can’t go on, which James Howard Kunstler has been saying all along. The shenanigans with stimulus and bailouts will just compound the central problem with debt. There’s not much longer to go before the whole thing collapses and dies. Six Months to Live- The economy that is. Especially the part that consists of swapping paper certificates. That’s the buzz I’ve gotten the first two weeks of 2010.
Peter Schiff (3/13/2010) (Economist, Political Activist)
“In my opinion, the market is now perfectly positioned for a massive dollar sell-off. The fundamentals for the dollar in 2010 are so much worse than they were in 2008 that it is hard to imagine a reason for people to keep buying once a modicum of political and monetary stability can be restored in Europe. In fact, the euro has recently stabilized. My gut is that the dollar sell-off will be sharp and swift. Once the dollar decisively breaks below last year’s lows, many of the traders who jumped ship in the recent rally will look to re-establish their positions. This will accelerate the dollar’s descent and refocus everyone’s attention back on the financial train-wreck unfolding in the United States. Any doubts about the future of the U.S. dollar should be laid to rest by today’s announcement that San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen has been nominated to be Vice Chair of the Fed’s Board of Governors, and thereby a voter on the interest rate-setting, seven-member Open Markets Committee. Ms. Yellen has earned a reputation for being one of the biggest inflation doves among the Fed’s top players.” Schiff is famous for his accurate predictions of the economic events of 2008.
Lindsey Williams (Pastor, former Chaplain to Major Oil Corporation)
Dollar devalued 30-50% by end of year. It will become very difficult for the average American to afford to buy even food. This was revealed to him through an Illuminati insider.
Unnamed Economist working for US Govt. (GLP)
What we have experienced the last two years is nothing to what we are going to experience this year. If you have a job now…you may not have it in three to six months. (by August 2010). Stock market will fall = great depression. Foreign investors stop financing debt = collapse. 6.2 million are about to lose their unemployment.
Jimmy “Doomsday” (Web site)
DOW will fall below 7,000 before mid summer 2010- Dollar will rise above 95 on the dollar index before mid summer 2010- Gold will bottom out below $800 before mid summer 2010- Silver will bottom out below $10 before mid summer 2010- CA debt implosion will start its major downturn by mid summer and hit crisis mode before Q4 2010- Dollar index will plunge below 65 between Q3 and Q4 2010- Commercial real estate will hit crisis mode in Q4 2010- Over 35 states will be bailed out by end of Q4 2010 by the US tax payer End of Q4 2010 gold will hit $1,600 and silver jump to $35 an oz.
George Ure (Economist)
Markets up until mid-to-late-summer. Then “all hell breaks lose” from then on through the rest of the year.
Trends, Forecasts & Predictions for 2010
(Compilation of Forecasts from Well Known Sources)
(Note: Click on blue underlined names for hot-link to related web sites)
Bob Chapman (Investment Expert)
First 6 months of 2010, Americans will continue to live in the ‘unreality’…the period between July and October is when the financial fireworks will begin. The Fed will act unilaterally for its own survival irrespective of any political implications …(source is from insider at FED meetings). In the last quarter of the year we could even see Martial law, which is more likely for the first 6 months of 2011. The FDIC will collapse in September 2010. Commercial real estate is set to implode in 2010. Wall Street believes there is a 100% chance of crash in bond market, especially municipals sometime during 2010. The dollar will be devalued by the end of 2010.
Gerald Celenteue"> (Trends Research Institute)
Terrorist attacks and the “Crash of 2010″. 40% devaluation at first = the greatest depression, worse than the Great Depression.
Igor Panarin (Russian Professor)
In the summer of 1998, based on classified data about the state of the U.S. economy and society supplied to him by fellow FAPSI analysts, Panarin forecast the probable disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010 (at the end of June – start of July 2010, as he specified on 10 December 2000).
Neithercorp (Web site)
Have projected that the third and final stage of the economic collapse will begin sometime in 2010. Barring some kind of financial miracle, or the complete dissolution of the Federal Reserve, a snowballing implosion should become visible by the end of this year. The behavior of the Fed, along with that of the IMF seems to suggest that they are preparing for a focused collapse, peaking within weeks or months instead of years, and the most certain fall of the dollar.
Webbots
July and onward things get very strange. Revolution. Dollar dead by November 2010.
LEAP 20/20 (European Economists Website)
2010 Outlook from a group of 25 European Economists with a 90% accuracy rating- We anticipate a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years. There is a perfect (economic) storm coming within the global financial markets and inevitable pressure on interest rates in the U.S. The injection of zero-cost money into the Western banking system has failed to restart the economy. Despite zero-cost money, the system has stalled. It is slowly rolling over into the next big down wave, which in Elliott Wave terminology will be Super Cycle Wave Three, or in common language, “THE BIG ONE, WHERE WE ALL GO OVER THE FALLS TOGETHER.”
Joseph Meyer (Economic Analyst)
Forecasts on the economy. He sees the real estate market continuing to decline, and advised people to invest in precious metals and commodities, as well as keeping cash at home in a safe place in case of bank closures. The stock market, after peaking in March or April (around 10,850), will fall all the way down to somewhere between 2450 and 4125 during the next leg down.
Harry Dent (Financial Newsletter Writer)
A very likely second crash by late 2010. The coming depression (starts around the summer of 2010). Dent sees the stock market–currently benefiting from upward momentum and peppier economic activity–headed for a very brief and pleasant run that could lift the Dow to the 10,700-11,500 range from its current level of about 10.090. But then, he sees the market running into a stone wall, which will be followed by a nasty stock market decline (starting in early March to late April) that could drive down the Dow later this year to 3,000-5,000 with his best guess about 3,800.
Richard Russell (Market Expert)
(from 2/3/10) says the bear market rally is in the process of breaking up and panic is on the way. He sees a full correction of the entire rise from the 2002 low of 7,286 to the bull market high of 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007. The halfway level of retracement was 10,725. The total retracement was to 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009. He now sees the Dow falling to 7,286 and if that level does not hold, “I see it sinking to its 1980-82 area low of Dow 1,000.” The current action is the worst he has ever seen. (Bob Chapman says for Russell to make such a startling statement is unusual because he never cries wolf and is almost never wrong).
Niño Becerra (Professor of Economics)
Predicted in July 2007 that what was going to happen was that by mid 2010 there is going to be a crisis only comparable to the one in 1929. From October 2009 to May 2010 people will begin to see things are not working out the way the government thought. In May of 2010, the crisis starts with all its force and continues and strengthens throughout 2011. He accurately predicted the current recession and market crash to the month.
Lyndon Larouche (Economist, Political Activist)
The crisis is accelerating and will become worse week by week until the whole system grinds into a collapse, likely sometime this year. And when it does, it will be the greatest collapse since the fall of the Roman Empire.
WALL STREET JOURNAL (Newspaper - 2/2010)
“You are witnessing a fundamental breakdown of the American dream, a systemic breakdown of our democracy and our capitalism, a breakdown driven by the blind insatiable greed of Wall Street: Dysfunctional government, insane markets, economy on the brink. Multiply that many times over and see a world in total disarray. Ignore it now, tomorrow will be too late.”
Eric deCarbonnel (Financial Analyst)
There is no precedence for the panic and chaos that will occur in 2010. The global food supply/demand picture has NEVER been so out of balance. The 2010 food crisis will rearrange economic, financial, and political order of the world, and those who aren’t prepared will suffer terrible losses…As the dollar loses most of its value, America’s savings will be wiped out. The US service economy will disintegrate as consumer spending in real terms (ie: gold or other stable currencies) drops like a rock, bringing unemployment to levels exceeding the great depression. Public health services/programs will be cut back, as individuals will have no savings/credit/income to pay for medical care. Value of most investments will be wiped out. The US debt markets will freeze again, this time permanently. There will be no buyers except at the most drastic of fire sale prices, and inflation will wipe away value before credit markets have any chance at recovery. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. Since global derivatives markets operate on the assumption of the continued stable value of the dollar and short term US debt, using derivatives to bet against the dollar is NOT a good idea. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. The dollar’s collapse will rob US consumers of all purchasing power, and any investment depend on US consumption will lose most of its value.
Alpha-Omega Report (Trends Forecasts, End Times Prophesy Analysis)
Going into 2010, the trends seemed to lead nowhere or towards oblivion. Geo-politically, the Middle East was and is trending towards some sort of military clash, most likely by mid-year, but perhaps sooner…At the moment, it seems 2010 is shaping up to be a year of absolute chaos. We see trends for war between Israel and her neighbors that will shake every facet of human activity…In the event of war, we see all other societal trends being thoroughly disrupted…Iran will most likely shut off the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf. This will have immense consequences for the world’s economy. Oil prices will skyrocket into the stratosphere and become so expensive that world’s economies will collapse. There are also trend indicators along economic lines that point to the potential for a total meltdown of the world’s financial system with major crisis points developing with the change of each quarter of the year. 2010 could be a meltdown year for the world’s economy, regardless of what goes on in the Middle East.
Robin Landry (Market Expert)
I believe we are headed to new market highs between 10780-11241 over the next few months. The most likely time frame for the top is the April-May area. Remember the evidence IMHO still says we are in a bear market rally with a major decline to follow once this rally ends.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (President, Hussman Investment Trust)
In my estimation, there is still close to an 80% probability (Bayes’ Rule) that a second market plunge and economic downturn will unfold during 2010.
Robert Prechter (Founder of Elliott Wave International – Author, Stock Market Analyst)
Implores retail investors stay away from the markets… for now. Prechter, who was bullish near the lows in March 2009, now says the stock market “is in a topping area, “predicting another crash in 2010 that will bring stocks below the 2009 low. His word to the wise, “be patient, don’t rush it” keep your money in cash and cash equivalents.
Richard Mogey (Research Director - Foundation for the Study of Cycles)
Because of a convergence of numerous cycles all at once, the stock market may go up for a little while, but will crash in 2010 and reach all-time lows late 2012. Mogey says that the 2008 crash was nothing compared to the coming crash. Gold may correct in 2009, but will go up in 2010 and peak in 2011. Silver will follow gold.
James Howard Kunstler (Author, Correspondent) (January 2010)
The economy as we’ve known it simply can’t go on, which James Howard Kunstler has been saying all along. The shenanigans with stimulus and bailouts will just compound the central problem with debt. There’s not much longer to go before the whole thing collapses and dies. Six Months to Live- The economy that is. Especially the part that consists of swapping paper certificates. That’s the buzz I’ve gotten the first two weeks of 2010.
Peter Schiff (3/13/2010) (Economist, Political Activist)
“In my opinion, the market is now perfectly positioned for a massive dollar sell-off. The fundamentals for the dollar in 2010 are so much worse than they were in 2008 that it is hard to imagine a reason for people to keep buying once a modicum of political and monetary stability can be restored in Europe. In fact, the euro has recently stabilized. My gut is that the dollar sell-off will be sharp and swift. Once the dollar decisively breaks below last year’s lows, many of the traders who jumped ship in the recent rally will look to re-establish their positions. This will accelerate the dollar’s descent and refocus everyone’s attention back on the financial train-wreck unfolding in the United States. Any doubts about the future of the U.S. dollar should be laid to rest by today’s announcement that San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen has been nominated to be Vice Chair of the Fed’s Board of Governors, and thereby a voter on the interest rate-setting, seven-member Open Markets Committee. Ms. Yellen has earned a reputation for being one of the biggest inflation doves among the Fed’s top players.” Schiff is famous for his accurate predictions of the economic events of 2008.
Lindsey Williams (Pastor, former Chaplain to Major Oil Corporation)
Dollar devalued 30-50% by end of year. It will become very difficult for the average American to afford to buy even food. This was revealed to him through an Illuminati insider.
Unnamed Economist working for US Govt. (GLP)
What we have experienced the last two years is nothing to what we are going to experience this year. If you have a job now…you may not have it in three to six months. (by August 2010). Stock market will fall = great depression. Foreign investors stop financing debt = collapse. 6.2 million are about to lose their unemployment.
Jimmy “Doomsday” (Web site)
DOW will fall below 7,000 before mid summer 2010- Dollar will rise above 95 on the dollar index before mid summer 2010- Gold will bottom out below $800 before mid summer 2010- Silver will bottom out below $10 before mid summer 2010- CA debt implosion will start its major downturn by mid summer and hit crisis mode before Q4 2010- Dollar index will plunge below 65 between Q3 and Q4 2010- Commercial real estate will hit crisis mode in Q4 2010- Over 35 states will be bailed out by end of Q4 2010 by the US tax payer End of Q4 2010 gold will hit $1,600 and silver jump to $35 an oz.
George Ure (Economist)
Markets up until mid-to-late-summer. Then “all hell breaks lose” from then on through the rest of the year.
Dow Theorist Richard Russell: Sell Everything!
Interesting read here:
"Do your friends a favor. Tell them to "batten down the hatches" because there's a HARD RAIN coming. Tell them to get out of debt and sell anything they can sell (and don't need) in order to get liquid. Tell them that Richard Russell says that by the end of this year they won't recognize the country."
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/dow-theorist-richard-russell-sell-everything-liquid-487564.html?tickers=dia,spy,xlf,%5Edji,%5Egspc,%5Eixic&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=
"Do your friends a favor. Tell them to "batten down the hatches" because there's a HARD RAIN coming. Tell them to get out of debt and sell anything they can sell (and don't need) in order to get liquid. Tell them that Richard Russell says that by the end of this year they won't recognize the country."
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/dow-theorist-richard-russell-sell-everything-liquid-487564.html?tickers=dia,spy,xlf,%5Edji,%5Egspc,%5Eixic&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=
US Economy So Healthy One In Ten Mortgages Delinquent (New Record)
Just in case you though the housing crisis was over....
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-economy-so-healthy-one-ten-mortgages-delinquent-new-record-one-twenty-foreclosure
Delinquencies and Foreclosures Rise Again
Data just released by the Mortgage Bankers' Assn show that more than one-tenth of all US mortgages are delinquent, a new record high. Homes in foreclosure edge up slightly as well. One caveat: the increases are driven by seasonal adjustment, which should probably be taken with a grain of salt given the huge shifts in this sector over the past few years.
Mortgage delinquencies: 10.06% in Q1 (Q4: 9.47%).
Mortgages in foreclosure: 4.63% in Q1 (Q4: 4.58%).
KEY POINTS:
1. The Mortgage Bankers' Assn Q1 report shows a further rise in delinquent mortgages, even in the 30-60 day range, somewhat surprising given the improvement in the economy and labor market in recent months. The increases are spread among both fixed and adjustable-rate mortgages, both prime and subprime; only FHA mortgages saw a lower delinquency rate than the prior quarter. One issue here is that the delinquency figures incorporate a positive seasonal adjustment, which should probably be taken with a grain of salt given the seismic shifts in this sector over the past few years (in fact, the MBA itself notes this issue; see http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/72906.htm). Before seasonal adjustment, the figures generally show improvement.
2. New foreclosures continue at a substantial rate of 1.23%, the 9th consecutive quarter where at least 1% of mortgages went into foreclosure. The total inventory of foreclosures (non-seasonally adjusted) rose to 4.63% of the stock of housing in the MBA's survey (just over 2 million homes in foreclosure).
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-economy-so-healthy-one-ten-mortgages-delinquent-new-record-one-twenty-foreclosure
Delinquencies and Foreclosures Rise Again
Data just released by the Mortgage Bankers' Assn show that more than one-tenth of all US mortgages are delinquent, a new record high. Homes in foreclosure edge up slightly as well. One caveat: the increases are driven by seasonal adjustment, which should probably be taken with a grain of salt given the huge shifts in this sector over the past few years.
Mortgage delinquencies: 10.06% in Q1 (Q4: 9.47%).
Mortgages in foreclosure: 4.63% in Q1 (Q4: 4.58%).
KEY POINTS:
1. The Mortgage Bankers' Assn Q1 report shows a further rise in delinquent mortgages, even in the 30-60 day range, somewhat surprising given the improvement in the economy and labor market in recent months. The increases are spread among both fixed and adjustable-rate mortgages, both prime and subprime; only FHA mortgages saw a lower delinquency rate than the prior quarter. One issue here is that the delinquency figures incorporate a positive seasonal adjustment, which should probably be taken with a grain of salt given the seismic shifts in this sector over the past few years (in fact, the MBA itself notes this issue; see http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/72906.htm). Before seasonal adjustment, the figures generally show improvement.
2. New foreclosures continue at a substantial rate of 1.23%, the 9th consecutive quarter where at least 1% of mortgages went into foreclosure. The total inventory of foreclosures (non-seasonally adjusted) rose to 4.63% of the stock of housing in the MBA's survey (just over 2 million homes in foreclosure).
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
If CDS Spreads Are Right, Then Europe's Bailout Fund Is a Giant Failure
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/482959/If-CDS-Spreads-Are-Right%2C-Then-Europes-Bailout-Fund-Is-a-Giant-Failure
While European credit default swap spreads have contracted substantially post the announcement of a super bailout fund for troubled Eurozone nations, they are still pretty ugly for Greece and Portugal.
While European credit default swap spreads have contracted substantially post the announcement of a super bailout fund for troubled Eurozone nations, they are still pretty ugly for Greece and Portugal.
Vallejo bankruptcy
SAN FRANCISCO — The city of Vallejo filed for bankruptcy protection Friday to deal with a ballooning budget deficit caused by soaring employee costs and declining tax revenue.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,357881,00.html
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,357881,00.html
Pennsylvania's state capital considers filing for bankruptcy
Pennsylvania's state capital considers filing for bankruptcy
Harrisburg, Pa., is debating whether to declare Chapter 9 bankruptcy. As cities struggle to balance their budgets, more may consider the option.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=munievents&sid=ab6OQc35weDI
Harrisburg, Pa., is debating whether to declare Chapter 9 bankruptcy. As cities struggle to balance their budgets, more may consider the option.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=munievents&sid=ab6OQc35weDI
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